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What is a prior probability?

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Alec KretchJUN 10, 2021, 7:53:38 PM

A prior probability, or unconditional probability, is the initial likelihood of an event occurring given no additional information. For instance, with a deck of cards, our prior probability of drawing an ace would be a 1/13. Prior probabilities are used in Naive Bayes to calculate the likelihood of an input mapping to each possible output, such as the probability that Document 1 belongs to Label A is equal to the prior probability of any document belonging to Label A multiplied by the probabilities of each word in Document 1 belonging to Label A (normalized).

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imgSpeech and Language Processing: Naive Bayes and Sentiment Classification (page 4)

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For a binary sentiment analysis task (labels: - and +), the prior probability for + is _.

Select one of the following options:
  • A.

    not possible to determine since there are an infinite amount of potential examples

  • B.

    the count of training examples for + divided by the total count of training examples

  • C.

    larger than the prior probability for -

  • D.

    1/2

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